3 Ocak 2013 Perşembe

In a Drawer, Somewhere....

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Eventually, every electronic device you buy ends up in a drawer, somewhere, obsolete, outdated, and unused.  Keep this in mind before you get excited over the latest new electronic toy.
Getting old is a little sobering and sometimes not as much fun.  After 53 Christmases, the excitement and mystery of the holidays starts to evaporate.  Doing the same things over and over again loses its appeal, at least to folks who think now and again.

And consuming things starts to get old as well.  Buying a car is no longer viewed as some special treat, but rather a dreadful process filled with loathing and anxiety.  After all, it is a lot of money to spend, and you'd rather just keep it in your bank account anyway, right?  And suppose you make the wrong choice?

Electronic toys lose their allure entirely.   After you've torn open the box on some electronic piece of shit for the 1,000th time, tossed the instructions, ate the desiccant pack, and plugged in the wall-pack transformer, well, you get bored.

And the fact that you have a drawer-full of last year's model of electronical crap sort of takes the edge off of it.   To a sixteen-year-old, getting that first smart phone must be real fun.  All those new features and stuff to try out!  How cool is that?   But at my age, well, it is just another piece of shit I have to deal with.  And likely I will have to manually transfer over all my data to it, and I will never understand all the features of the device until about two months before I throw it away for good.

But as depressing as that all sounds, there is an upside to all of this.  Not being enamored of technology means I don't squander as much as I used to, accumulating it.  When I was young and poor, having the latest technology meant more to me - and I was willing to go into debt for it.   When CD players first came out (yes, I am that old) I went and bought one - a Sony for the modest sum of $300, which was a lot of money in 1985.  The year before, they were over $1000.  And CDs were $14.99 apiece back then, too - which would be like $45 today.

But I had to have one - it seemed important at the time.

And when "Car Phones" came out, I had to have one of those, too.  I think I paid $600 for the installation of my analog Motorola Car phone, in my 1988 Camry.  And for only $59 a month, I could talk for only 59 cents a minute, except after 7:00 and on weekends, when minutes were free.  I was paying close to $100 a month for a phone in my car, which today would be like $250 or more.

I hardly could afford that, but I thought I could, and moreover that I "needed" this luxury in my life, as I was so "busy" all the time, and having a phone for the hour-and-a-half a day I was in my car seemed necessary.

The reality was, of course, while it was "handy" on occasion, for the most part, it was just a status symbol and a way of showing off wealth.  And it was exciting, I think, to try new technology which at the time seemed like science fiction.

You may think cell phones are pretty passé today, but imagine how I felt, back in 1989, getting a dialtone in my car!  It was like anti-gravity had been invented.    Before then, only Presidents and heads of oil companies had car phones.   I still remember making that first phone call - how electric it felt.  I think I called my folks and tried to explain to them I was calling from my car.  And they didn't understand it.  Was I calling from my garage or something?

So I guess that is part and parcel of being in your 20's.  All this electronic shit seems so cool.  And I am sure that the first iPhone you bought seemed really cool, as you could do all these "apps" and shit.   But after a few years, people expect this sort of thing and the novelty wears off.

And before you know it, that piece of technology you bought - and were so excited about - is now in a drawer somewhere, gathering dust.  It was a big deal the day you bought it, but now it just seems, well, like so much junk.  And while the upgraded model you bought might be nicer, the excitement of getting it just wasn't the same, was it?  In fact, by now, it starts to seem like an expensive pain-in-the-ass that it is.  Some new "features" you have to learn, and of course they changed how it works, so when you press the button to save someone's name in the directory, it erases it instead.

And after a few decades, you realize that the electronic crap in your life basically lasts only a few years, before it becomes woefully obsolete.  My first real PC (which I borrowed money to buy) ended up in Dumpster, only five years later - or sold for a few dollars.   And yet when I got it, it was like, whoa!  Color monitor, dude!  VGA no less, all 15" inches of it!  And check it out - a hard drive   40 MB - suck on that! 

Today, a Terabyte can be had for $199 at the local office supply store.

Today, it would hardly run my calendar program on Windows.  And perhaps this is a problem for the electronic industry.  Because if I feel this way about electronics, then I suspect many other people do as well.   And given our aging demographic, perhaps more and more people will start to turn away from electronic gadgetry.

Maybe.  Maybe not.  All I can say is, I am not excited about smart phones, iPads, or any of this crap.  The people I see with them, seem like very unhappy and stressed people - constantly fidgeting with then and checking them, all while talking to you.  

And if you even try to have an e-mail conversation with them, it is like "Wassup?" and not much else.

Recently, I met some 20-somethings who are just getting started out in life.  It is nice to meet younger people, so full of hope, naivete and whatnot.  But trying to communicate with them is impossible.  They want to text from their iPhone, and I like to e-mail or talk on the phone.  It is a generational communications gap.

And a lot of older people here on Retirement Island are buying smart phones or texting plans, simply so they can stay in touch with their children or more specifically, grandchildren.   Because the grandchildren can't write a five-line e-mail and get nervous talking on the phone.

It is like someone invented a new method of communication and forgot to tell us old folks about it.

I dunno.  I will be dragged, kicking and screaming, in to this new era of Twittering and Twattering and Texting and crap.   And the reason why is simple:  I don't want to spend the money on more electronic crap.

Electronic crap - that will end up in a drawer somewhere.


Gun Nuts

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I recently posted an article, "Another Day, Another Mass Shooting" - and since that posting in July of this year, there have been a number of attempted and successful mass shootings at Malls and Schools, including one yesterday.

What is going on here?  There is a pattern, if you choose to look for it.

Incidentally, note how the Media once again falls all over itself trying to "get the facts out" and gets it all wrong.   Nearly every fact reported yesterday turns out to be wrong, today.  The shooter was misidentified as his Brother.   The Mother was not a school teacher.    Perhaps tomorrow, we will find out everything the media hyped today was wrong as well.   This is a pattern, as I have noted before.

And soon, a memorial will be built by concerned citizens, who will attach teddy bears and flowers to a chain-link fence near the school.  We will all weep and cry and say what a horror it was and then...

....do nothing.

We all will claim to be altruistic and shout to everyone how much we "care" about these poor kids and their families, and shake our heads in disbelief, once again, and say "ain't it awful."

And people will use this to reinforce their own belief systems - that if we could only "go back to the good old days" none of this would happen.  Or if we only had more gun laws - or that guns are not the problem.

But sure as clockwork, in about 30 days, no one will really give a shit.  You've already forgotten about the people in Aurora Colorado, and since only two were killed at the Clackamas Mall, you mentally wrote that one off.

And likely, you've forgotten entirely about Gabby Gifford and that horrific shooting in Arizona (was it Arizona or New Mexico?  We forget so soon).  She got better, right?  It's all good.  Time to mentally move on.

And of course, if you try to say, "Gee, maybe there is a pattern to all of these cases, and maybe instead of building memorials and making media events of these things, we can really prevent them?" you will be shouted down by people saying it is "too soon" to discuss the issue, as the "bodies are still warm".

And that is a convenient argument for people who don't want the Status Quo to be changed.   And it is the argument the gun lobby uses - every time - when one of these events happens.   It is "too soon" to discuss gun laws.  But when it is "appropriate" to do so?  Only when people have forgotten?  And who gave the gun lobby the right to tell us what to think and when to think it?

As I noted in another posting, I am not anti-gun.  But guns present a number of problems on a personal and national level.   The are expensive and can be very dangerous, if not handled properly.  And few people handle them properly.   And there is little or no need to accumulate an arsenal of firearms - for any reason.

On one news site, a commenter noted that he had over 300 guns and that under the second amendment, no one was going to take them away.   300 guns is a lot of weaponry.  If you have that many, either you are a collector, or a gun nut.  And there is a difference between the two.

It is not weird or odd to have weapons if you are a hunter or a collector, or perhaps believe you need a gun for protection or for your job.   It is a form of mental illness if you are hoarding firearms and ammunition for the "end times" or because you think the government needs to be overthrown.  And increasingly, a larger and larger number of gun owners are falling into this second category - goaded and aided by conspiracy theory websites, television shows, and magazines.

In Liberal Blue State New York, my massage therapist tells me a friend of his has bought 20,000 rounds of ammunition, "just in case".  He is worried that maybe that might not be enough, and has set out to buy 40,000 more.   This is a guy who has nothing saved for retirement - which is a pretty predictable event.  But if we ever have a Bosnian-style civil war, he is set.

This Bunker Mentality seems to be on the rise in this country.  It is related, I think to Hoarding Disorder - this desire to set aside things for some catastrophic events in the future.   And it ties in, I think, with this concept that the Government is somehow intruding into people's lives more and more these days.  So-called "Sovereign Movement" people decry government - or at least the parts of it they don't like - and decide they can pick and choose which laws they should obey.  Not surprisingly, while they are eager to reap the benefits of civilization (infrastructure, roads, bridges, hospitals, etc.) they eschew the part about paying taxes - at a paltry 25%.

This is a dangerous form of mental illness - and seems to be fanned by the far-Right in an attempt to destabilize our own government.

While the media is hyping how this latest shooting is "the worst since....." they conveniently forget the worst school mass-murder in history, which occurred in Bath, Michigan.   A disgruntled nutjob blew up the local school with all the children in it, and then blew himself up using a car bomb loaded with shrapnel, as the "first responders" came to the rescue.  A Taliban suicide attack?   Some fundamentalist Christian nutjob like in Oklahoma City?  No, just a deranged individual back in 1927.  Same old shit, different day.

But getting back to school shootings, there is a pattern in these as well - but a pattern no one wants to see.   We are told about "bullied teens" with a grudge against Christian students, or Goths or a "Trenchcoat Mafia".   But the boring reality is these are mentally ill people - usually Schizophrenic - with access to guns.

And while some may say, "Gee, he was a nice kid, quiet and all.  I never thought he would hurt a fly!" the writing is usually on the wall with crazy people.  Like pot smokers (often in the same group, and yes, there is a link between pot smoking and Schizophrenia) they are annoying as all shit.   As a result, they "start things" with friends, family members, fellow students, co-workers, and the like.

Most only end up hurting themselves.  Others, when given access to firearms, often end up hurting others as well, as the events of this year alone have demonstrated - again, and again, and again.

So we have a two-pronged issue here.  It is not merely a "gun problem" or a mental health problem.  It is a combination of these two problems that is particularly deadly.

And while we can't guard against all such crimes, it certainly is worthwhile to so something to at least reduce the incidence of such occurrences.  We can't stop them from occurring entirely, but like car wrecks, we can at least try to minimize the carnage.

Part of the solution is already being enacted.  The rapid response to the Clackamas Mall shooting is a case in point.  Previously, police were trained to cordon off areas where a shooter was found, and then send for a SWAT team and hostage negotiators.   This merely allowed the shooters more time to kill more people, as happened at Columbine.   The name of the game is to take out the shooter quickly, and minimize the carnage.  It makes more sense.

And more and more schools have implemented "lockdown" procedures and secured entrances, which is not a bad idea - but makes our whole society more bunker-like.

The two areas we haven't addressed are guns and crazy people - the real causes of these problems, when mixed together.

In most of these cases, there is some warning.

Swap Meet

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Why do some people want to swap, barter, or trade instead of buy and sell?
The other day, I was going through a stack of Model T Ford Club of America vintage magazines (which I should sell on eBay or something) and saw in the classified ads in the back, this bizarre ad:
"TRADE- 1908 Model T Tourabout, 95% Restored, new wheels, new tires, new bass, irons, bows upholstery.  Needs only paint work and finish assembly.  Car is NOT for sale!  Would like to trade for a really early car.  Older restoration considered or car in like condition to mine.  Call Joe Dreamer at (555) DREAM-ON."
It got me to thinking that "swapping" seems to be popular among a certain sect of our population - the crazy part.    Go on to Craigslist sometime (itself a bastion of Crazy - where a clapped out '95 Mustang is a "hot machine" selling for $10,000 or people who are 100 lbs overweight advertise for sex, saying "no fats") and you will see items listed as not "for sale" but as "willing to swap/trade"

It is bizarre.  Do people really do business this way - and why?   And the ads are interesting - a list of surplus goods and unsatiated desires.

"Will swap Remington 12-gauge pump for jon boat in good condition."

"Want to trade my 1979 Corvette for any kind of pickup truck."

"Have 1974 Tri-Hull, no motor, will trade for flat-screen TV, 42 inch or larger"

What is going on here with swapping?  Who are these people and why do they want to swap instead of sell?

Well, there are three economic motives for swapping, all of which I think are outweighed by the disadvantages of the practice.    For cars, boats, motorcycles, and RV's, swapping can actually save "real cash money" (is there any other kind?) in that some States allow you to deduct the value of the item traded from your sales tax amount.   So if you trade a $4500 car for a different $4500 car, then you may not owe sales tax - in some States.  (Check your State Laws before trying this).

A second reason is transaction cost.  Simply stated, when you sell an item, you often have to lower the price in order to attract a buyer.   You put your shotgun up for sale, and there are no takers.  After all, shotguns are offered for sale at the sporting goods store, all day long, and most people, if they want one, buy one there (or are sold one, after seeing the bright shiny display).   So you lower the price to the point where someone says, "Gee, that's a good price on a shotgun!  I should buy it!" - and they buy it, not so much as they "need" it, but because it appears to be a bargain.   The seller does not get full value for his item this way.

Now armed with cash, he seeks out a jon boat.  But as a buyer who wants something, he has to hope that there is a desperate seller out there.  The sporting goods store has jon boats for sale, but they sell for full retail price.  And while that price may be similar to the full retail price of a new shotgun, it is likely twice what the seller got for his used gun on the open market.  By hoping to swap, the seller of the shotgun hopes to avoid this disparity in pricing between buying and selling.

The third reason is a lack of cash or capital.   If you have an old shotgun that you are not using because you no longer hunt, and want a jon boat because you want to go fishing, you might want to sell the shotgun and buy the jon boat.  The problem is, the people around you might not have the cash to buy the gun, and thus you don't have the cash to buy the boat.   And this situation illustrates why when capital is tight, commerce slows down.   People may have things they want to sell - but no one has cash to buy.  So the seller ends up not buying the things that he wants, and sales and commerce spiral downward.

And whenever the economy starts to tank, you see stories in the paper about Bartering and Swapping.   This happened in 1980, during our last great recession, and it happened again, in 2009.  People set up bartering websites, today, and proclaim to have re-invented basic commerce.  One fellow even set up a bartering vending machine where you could put items in cubbies and swap them for other items.    However, as it was based on the honor system, I suspect it was either a hoax or a huge failure.

When the economy improves (as it has) such ideas lose currency rather quickly.  And they lose currency simply because real currency becomes available and the advantages of bartering evaporate.  And the news stories about how "everyone's going back to Bartering!!" disappear.  Once again, the news media gets it all wrong - on purpose, of course, as they want you to buy newspapers or click on idiotic story titles.  They're baiting you!

But taking all that aside, is bartering a good deal?  I think not, and for several reasons.  As I noted before in my posting Money, the Greatest Invention, money has an almost magical quality.  If I want to convert a shotgun into a jon boat, I can sell my shotgun, convert it into cash, travel halfway across the planet, and then convert the cash into a jon boat.   It is like Captain Kirk's transporter beam, only better, as not only can it transport goods from one place to another, it can convert them into other goods.

Which is why it is so sad when you see poor people moving with U-Haul trucks.  They spend hundreds, if not thousands of dollars moving junk - stuff that could be disposed of or sold and then converted to transportable cash.   Spending $500 on a rented trailer to move an $800 car just makes no sense at all.   Sell it, convert to cash, and then buy anew at your destination.

But is swapping a good deal?  I think not, for several reasons.

1.  The odds of finding a swapmate are slim:  You want to swap your shotgun for a jon boat.  However, in the 100-mile radius area near you, there isn't even anyone wanting to sell a used jon boat.  And even if there was, he isn't looking for a shotgun.  The law of probability dictates that the incidence of each swapper wanting exactly what the other has, is very, very slim.

Poor people are not very good at understanding probability and spastics.  This is one reason why they gamble.  In fact, if you wanted a litmus test for poverty, I suggest testing a person on their probability skills.  The poorer they score, the poorer they likely will be.   Math is useful in "real life"!

Of course it might be possible that if you find a jon boat seller, he may take a shotgun in trade, with the idea of selling it himself - or swapping it for something else.  But that creates extra work for the seller, as he now has another transaction to work, in order to get paid.  He would want to discount the transaction accordingly.   Which is why in these swap deals, part of the posturing is "Well, it isn't exactly what I was looking for......"

I suppose, theoretically, the shotgun could become a talisman - a form of currency for trading - much as things like whiskey and gold have been, in our nation's history.  Some people are claiming Tide detergent was a medium of exchange very recently, but I find these claims dubious.



2.   The odds of two items being identical in value are slim:   Price depends on condition, and while a shotgun and a jon boat could have equivalent values, it would depend on the condition, age, and model of each item.   The idea that you will find a jon boat exactly equivalent in value to your shotgun is ludicrous.  The odds are infinitesimal.   As a result, most of these "bartering" deals end up involving one party paying some cash to the other to make up the difference in price - if they ever go through at all.

Paying cash - so why is bartering better than, well, just paying cash?  It really isn't.  It is just taking a simple transaction and making it horribly complex.  And what have I said about complex transactions?  The more complicated you can make any transaction, the easier it is to fleece the mark.

Bartering takes a simple transaction (I give you cash, you give me shotgun) and escalates it by a factor of two.   And usually poor people are drawn to these complex transactions - convinced they will win somehow by negotiating a better deal than the other fellow.

Susceptibility to complex transactions is probably another good indicia of poverty-think.  The poor are continually chasing rebates, coupons, and other complex deals, convinced they can "pull a fast one" on a major corporation who is stupidly giving away money.

3.  Equating values of dissimilar items is hard to do:   I mentioned before that in car buying, it pays to pick one model, make and year range of car to look at, rather than shopping for different makes and models.   Comparing prices of a Chevy and a Toyota is comparing Apples to Oranges.   Decide what car you want to buy and then find the best price for that car.

Bartering takes this concept to the next level - where you are directly comparing values of apples and oranges.   And this is not easy to do.   You may be able to find a "book value" for one item, and compare it to the book value of another, it if it is a car or something.  But for smaller items, determining market values is harder to do.  Thus, the chance of you getting snookered is much larger.

And this brings us to the "point" I guess, of bartering.   The barterer believes that he can shrewdly "trade" with another fellow and come out on the better side of the deal.  Rather than sell his product to the highest bidder, he hopes to trade to his advantage and come out ahead.

And perhaps that it is a third indicia of the impoverished mind - the idea that you can trade your way to success.   And this illustrates, why in poor areas, people put ridiculous prices on things, or park cars and boats on their lawns for years at a time, hoping to find the right buyer.

* * *
I suspect that most of these people looking to swap, barter, or trade, are dreamers of the first order - hoping to turn a rusty non-working shotgun into a nice fishing boat, preferably with motor.   But the harsh reality is that the fellow they want to barter with has a dented leaky old Sears jon boat, with no motor, and is hoping to get a nicely oiled and cleaned Remington that was used only once or twice.   Both are dreamers, with unrealistic expectations - and no understanding of basic probability.

And perhaps that is why these dreamers will put in their ads "Swap only!  Not for sale!" as they realize that if offered cash for an item, they likely will have to accept market value for their goods - and lose any opportunity to put one over on their trading partner.

Because other than avoiding sales tax on a car transaction (in some States) I can see no financial advantage of such a proposed deal.

People wanting to swap or barter are time-wasters of the first order.   It is highly likely they don't even want to part with their goods (hoarding disorder) but rather are looking for attention and validation that their goods are valuable and desirable - which hoarders love to do.   These folks are similar to the "its for sale, but it's not for sale" people, who list an item online, and then never answer phone calls or e-mails.

Time-wasters, is what they are.   They want you to pester them with phone call after phone call, e-mail after e-mail, asking about the item for sale, until you have basically handed them all the power in the transaction - if it ever goes through.   Never fall for these power-shifting tactics.   But that is a subject for another posting.

Who's Who?

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There is a real Who's Who that lists all the names of the beautiful people.  You are not among them.

I got another telemarketer call.  The telemarketers have realized that the "Do Not Call" registry is about as effective as a restraining order on an abusing husband - and they have given up all pretense of even trying to obey the law.

But, like Police Tape, this does help the consumer.  You should assume that any unsolicited phone call is for a scam, just as any unsolicited e-mail or regular mail entreaty.  If someone calls, e-mails, texts, or mails you, asking for money, just assume it is fraudulent, period.

I pick up the phone and I say "hello" and there is a pause.  Usually this is a good time to just hang up, as that pause means a computer robodialer has detected your voice and is connecting you with a telemarketer, probably offshore.

After a short pause, some clicking and beeping, a foreign-sounding voice says, "Mr. Robert Bell?" and I say, "Hello" and they say, "may I speak to Mr. Robert Bell" to which I say, "Speaking".     Since slammers and crammers often try to get you to say the word "YES" over the phone, it is a good idea to avoid saying that word on the phone, as they will record it as use it as "evidence" that you consented to a $50 a month calling feature.   Well, at least they used to do that.  Today such scams are less common, but not obsolete.

I asked, "Who is calling please?" to which she kept saying "Mr. Robert Bell?" which is another sure sign of a scam, as people who don't immediately identify themselves on the phone are usually con artists.

Then comes the real tip-off, "How are you today?"

Telemarketers always start off with this phrase, as it disarms the listener.  "Fine, thank you" is what you are trained from birth to reply.  You have to avoid this urge and say, "Who is calling, please?"

She finally says, "I am calling from Who's Who, and we want to confirm your entry in this year's edition..."

I tell her she is violating the Do Not Call Registry, and she replies, "Well, this is a confirmation call, and...."

But I had hung up by then.

What is Who's Who and what is this scam?   I was prompted to write this as when I mentioned it to Mark, only five years my junior, he said "What the heck is Who's Who?"

What the heck, indeed.   Back before the turn of the Century - and the previous one as well - there were books like Burke's Peerage and such, where the "important people" were listed in a big book, and if you were someone, you were written up in it.   Who's Who was one of these books, and over the years, it has expanded to include celebrities, businesspeople, and the social set.   If you were in Who's Who back in 1967, you were important!

Of course, the Internet and Social Media have changed all that.  Today, nobody reads Who's Who.

And by that, I mean the real Who's Who.  Since those days, a number of fake ones have sprung up.  And those are the ones that call you on the phone and ask to "verify" your information.  The lady who called me was not from the original Who's Who, but was from one of the knock-off versions - or could have been an utter scam artist entirely.  We'll never know.

For people of my generation, I guess, the term "Who's Who" still might resonate, although I think the term is pretty dated in this day and age.

The scam is simple.  And by "scam" I don't mean they are committing any crime - far from it, they are too clever for that!  Rather, they just take your money and give you something that I believe is of little or no value in return.

They call you up to "confirm" your listing in Who's Who, and then ask for a lot of personal data.   For a nominal fee, they say, you can have an "expanded biography" in the book (which no doubt is online these days).   People who are narcissists (and we all are, to some extent) fall for this and cough up $25 to $250 or more, just to make themselves famous.

And just like the poetry scam, the company might actually publish such a book.  Since the title is in the Public Domain, they can publish "Who's Who of Lawyers" or "Who's Who of Doctors" or "Who's Who of  College Students" or whatever.   So long as at least one copy is published, or it is put on a website, they can claim they are fulfilling their half of the obligation.  And usually they do sell copies - to the people who paid to get into it!  So it is not illegal.   It's just a stupid waste of money and ego-stroking.

It is not a good value - and in that regard, I consider it a scam.   But like most good scams, it preys upon the greed of the mark - that you want your name in lights so badly, that you will pay for the privilege.  And like most excellent scams, the mark, once they realize they have been had, will be too embarrassed to tell anyone about their foolishness.  Secrecy is the con artist's best friend!

Of course, there are "legitimate" books out there that do similar shakedowns.  Martindale-Hubbel, for example, has a listing of all the lawyers in the country.  I'm in there, and no, I would not pay for an "expanded" listing.  (I saw a physical copy in a junk shop the other day, there I was, listed in Alexandria, Virginia).   But if you are a Lawyer, they will call you and ask if you want an "expanded biography" published, for an extra fee, of course.  No thanks.

In a way, it is like the yellow pages - there are so many of them today.   You get a listing for free, but those full-page ads are not cheap.  And like the yellow pages, I think these sorts of books are a poor source for leads of any source, and a poor investment for a businessperson.   No one uses the yellow pages anymore.  And the best leads are from referrals from real live friends (not online review sites!) not advertisement books.

I would not waste my money getting into any version of "Who's Who" or other book that claims to honor the "best and brightest".  I realize they are a scam, as they asked to list my name, which is proof positive that they are not seeking out the "best and brightest" but instead those with a pulse.

Sadly, some folks don't get this.  I have seen resumes with "Listed in Who's Who of College Students!" on them.   This is not really a credential, and likely, it will be one reason your resume gets tossed in the garbage.  "Clueless sod!" the HR manager will say, chuckling softly, as your crumpled resume and cover letter bounce off the edge of his wastebasket....

Ugly Little Bears

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Nearly two decades ago, people tried to convince themselves that these ugly little stuffed bears were "collectibles" and would be worth thousands.   What makes people think this way?
Remember beanie babies and the hoopla surrounding them?   For some reason these mass-produced stuffed bears (made in China and Indonesia, the source of the cheapest things on earth) were thought to be worth a lot of money.  They came out in 1993, and within a couple of years, people were going nuts over them.

And as usual, it was the white trash and the poor who got sucked into this "collectible" nonsense.  These are the people who buy Franklin Mint crap and Elvis commemorative plates.
 
By 1999, the fad had ended, and production was halted.   From peak to valley, the fad lasted less than five years.

It is, alas, yet another example of poverty-think and one reason I am giving up this blog.  You just can't convince stupid people of common sense.

But I'll try:   A mass-produced item from China will never be "collectible" and it will never be "valuable" just because the manufacturer says it will be so.   In fact, any manufactured good can be replicated, once its value rises far enough.  You want a numbers-matching Hemi Cuda?  People can make one for you.  It is as simple as that.

And stupid little bears?  Be serious.

Even the Beanie Baby manufacturer is trying to throw cold water on this.  The "Princess Di" bear, arguably one of the most "collectible" of all of them, is worth maybe $50 to some weeping Mom who still misses the "People's Princess".  From the Ty website:


Current Princess Beanie Baby Values
Princess values updated - December 1, 2012

CountrySwing TagPellets shown on Tush TagValue Range *
ChinaNo spaceP.V.C.$20 - $45
ChinaNo spaceP.E.$15 - $20
IndonesiaNo spaceP.V.C.$35 - $50
IndonesiaNo spaceP.E.$15 - $20
IndonesiaSpaceP.E.$5 - $10
ChinaSpaceP.E. no number inside tush tag$6 - $20
ChinaSpaceP.E. red number inside tush tag$5 - $15

* Values shown in this table apply to a Princess in like-new condition with mint swing and tush tags. Princess without a swing tag is worth only one or two dollars..

* * *
So, you would think that would put a little damper on this idea that a $10 bear is worth hundreds, or maybe thousands of dollars, right?

Guess again.   Dozens of these insipid little bears on on eBay as I speak, with "buy it now" prices ranging from $500 to $2,000,000.

No really.  People want more for a stuffed bear than a vintage Ferrari.   They want more for a stuffed bear than I paid for my house:

 Pages and pages of these ugly bears are on eBay, often asking hundreds of thousands of dollars in price.  And yet there are literally hundreds for sale.  Not very rare, desirable, or collectible, are they? (click image to enlarge and have a good chuckle).
One of the listings says the bear is "museum quality" - but what museum, pray tell, would have such a thing?  The only museum I could find that has beanie babies is the Strong Museum ("the museum of play") in Rochester, New York, and then only because Ty gave them 700 of the damn things.  In white-trash fantasy world, museums pay millions for beanie babies, likely at auctions like Sotheby's.  But I digress.

Rareness does not equate to value, period.   I picked up a stone on the beach the other day.  It has a neat little line through it that is green.  It is unusual and unlike any other stone I have seen.  In fact, it is unlike any other stone on the planet.  It is unique.

But it is worth nothing.  Because it has no real function or use.  No one really wants to cherish it.  No one wants it for any real use that another stone couldn't be used for.  And even if they really wanted it, they really could just take another stone sort of shaped like it and chisel it into shape.   The earth has abundant resources and labor is cheap.

But, people will convince themselves that things have intrinsic value based on perceived rareness and by perceived demand.   The problem with the former has already been illustrated.  The problem with the latter is that it can evaporate rapidly.

The beanie baby craze collapsed a few years after it started.   People who paid top dollar for beanie babies realized that they had been had.   I recall after the fad died, a friend of mine gave me a bucket of them which I sold on eBay for $1 to $2 apiece at the time.   They were just beanbag stuffed animals, nothing special, collectible or even interesting to look at, play with, or display. No one wanted them anymore - when months previous, they were highly coveted.   Human nature works that way - how interesting is that?

And the same thing has happened to other "collectibles" over time.  People lose interest, and more importantly, the media hoopla that hyped these "investments" is quickly forgotten.   Things that have no intrinsic value (or little intrinsic value) tend to lose their value over time.

But people like to think this way.  Someone tried to tell me that a clapped out old snowmobile was worth money because it was a "Limited Golden Anniversary Edition" - as if a set of gold stickers on the side of the cowling negated the seized engine beneath it.  The fellow buying the "Limited Edition" car thinks that somehow it is special or rare, compared to the base model, when in fact hundreds of thousands just like his, were made.

It is like that stupid "Antiques Roadshow" on PBS, where the yokels bring in some ugly old cuckoo clock or a chair that is so rickety no one can sit in it.  And the guy says, "Gee, this would bring $5,000 at auction!" which of course it wouldn't - he is likely pulling numbers out of his ass.   Most of the junk is so ugly it hurts your eyes.  But these specious appraisals make the yokel's eyes light up - as they are so in awe of money, but understand nothing about it.

The really fine antiques?  Yes, they sell for staggering sums.  You go to a place like Winterthur and look at the furniture there, and you realize pretty quickly the sad shit in your attic is really crap.  Either it was inexpensive furniture when it was made, or it is in very bad condition and not worth much - or it is not very old, really, and thus not worth a lot.   Keeping ugly broken junk because "it is old and worth something" is idiotic.  If you don't like how it looks or works, sell it.  Chances are, anything you get for it is a good deal.  Most antiques do not appreciate at a rate much faster than inflation.   Like collecting old cars, you are deceiving yourself if you think you will make money at it - unless you are a dealer of such items.

And yes, this same effect applies to gold as well - which I have written about before, at length.  Gold has value based on demand alone, and not any intrinsic value, other than as jewelry and for electronics, which makes up a minor part of the overall demand.   Most of the demand driving up the price of gold is from people hoarding it, thinking it will go up even further in value.  When that demand slackens, and people start to sell their hoards, what will happen?

Same thing that happened to beanie babies.   But like the brave lady (or fellow) listing the two million dollar beanie baby on eBay, there will always be true believers out there - convinced that values will hold, if not in fact go up over time - if only enough people believe they will.

2 Ocak 2013 Çarşamba

Magic Wands - Get Out Of Debt Guy Site

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When people get into debt, they want someone to wave a magic wand and make it go away.   This makes them vulnerable to debt reduction scams.  It also means they tend to wait until things horribly go wrong before taking action.


I get regular updates from the Get Out Of Debt Guy site, which is a horror show of a site, as it has entries from all sorts of white trash, with their sob stories of stupidity and debt.   In 99% of the cases, these people got into debt over their head through utter stupidity - buying crap on time and then taking on onerous loans as a means of "tiding themselves over" without figuring out how they could pay back a 14% to 25% interest rate loan over time, if they can't even make their paycheck last to the end of the month.

There are a few sad cases were people have medical debts.  But the advice there is pretty simple:  Declare Bankruptcy and start over.   Instead, they try to make payments on a debt that will never get paid off.  They tear through their pitiful savings in their IRA or 401(k) and then decide that maybe it isn't happening.  And only then, when they are utterly destitute, do they think about Bankruptcy.

And what most of these people are looking for is a magic wand, which the Get Out Of Debt Guy doesn't have.  They want their debts to "go away" without any effort or work on their part, and without declaring Bankruptcy.   And of course, it goes without saying that they don't want to give up Cable TV, their Smart Phone, or the Harley.

So these folks engage in wishful thinking.  What is the harm in that?  A lot.  What usually ends up happening to them is this:
1.  They take on more debt to pay off debt - debt consolidation loans, home equity loans, and the sort.  This does not reduce debt, just makes the payments last longer and lowers the monthly payments slightly.  The consumer congratulates himself on this financial acumen and runs up more debt.  After all, with lower monthly payments, he can "afford" it - right?  Wrong.

2.  They try to make payments on loans they cannot afford, and go through their savings - which might be protected in Bankruptcy - instead of cutting to the chase.

3.  They send off money to people who promise to "reduce debt - without Bankruptcy!" - folks who claim to have magic wands.   Such folks, of course, are charlatans, and they just take your money and do nothing.  About half the letters to the Debt Guy are along the lines of "how can I get my money back from them?" or "How can I make them take action on my debts?"   They just don't get it.  They signed onerous loan agreements, and now they have tossed money away to a Con Artists - and yet they still believe that it will all work out somehow.

4.  As the debts pile up, they start going after more and more onerous and odious deals in life - payday loans, title pawn loans, whatever, as a means of "tiding themselves over".   More debt is just gasoline on the fire at this point, but they don't get it.  They are engaged in self-immolation.

5.  Rather than seek out a legitimate Bankruptcy Attorney (because in Redneck parlance, "Lawyers are a rip-off!") they just let things go to collection and have judgements recorded against them.  The car gets towed, the house foreclosed upon, wages are garnished, bank accounts seized.   Instead of taking action early on and possibly preserving some of these assets and getting some breathing room, they wait until they are nearly homeless before they take action.

6. At this point, they don't even have the $500 to pay a real Lawyer for a basic Bankruptcy proceeding.  And moreover, they've made their finances so complicated that the poor Lawyer who does take their case will spend months untangling it all - if he can do much of anything at that point.
So how do you "get out of debt" like the Get Out Of Debt Guy says you can do?   Well, first of all, let's address how you got in.   You have to get out of the mindset that debt is normal, desirable, and inevitable.   It is basic math.  If you make $50,000 a year, borrowing $10,000 more doesn't make you $10,000 richer, but rather $5,000 poorer, after you get done paying all that interest and other charges.  And with each debt you take on, you risk your financial future and well-being.   So debt should not be taken on for frivolous reasons like smart phones (which really are a debt instrument, as they have fixed contracts that basically pay off the cost of the phone over time) or a motorcycle, a bass boat, a pool table, or whatever.

If you take on debt, do it for smart things - your first house, or a real education.   And be smart about it.  Get the best rates and shop around.   Buy as much house as you need, not what you want.  Don't take out private student loans and ask parents to co-sign.  Go to a real school, not a for-profit college.  Major in something useful, not frivolous.  And borrow only what you need to get by, not stuff that just makes you comfortable.  Yes, it is true, many students borrow money on private student loans so they can have four years of cable-TV while in college.  That's about $5000 right there - and a distraction from your studies!

Even a car loan is a frivolous loan.  People say they need a car, but what they really want is a brand-new one, and a fancy one at that.  So they pay through the nose and pay a ton extra for collision insurance, drive it badly, drive their rates up, and end up over a barrel.   Maybe when you start out, a loan from your credit union for a short term to buy a used car is not a bad idea.  Spending big bucks on a new car at age 22?  Just dumb.

OK, you say, fine advice.  I get it.  I fucked up by not taking this seriously.  Now I am over a barrel, how is this going to help me?  I need to know how to get out, not how I got in.   But it is important to know how you got into debt, otherwise, any efforts to get out will be short-circuited by the same bad behaviors that got you into debt.  You will pay down debt and then think, "Gee, I can go spend more money, now!" and end up back where you started.  It is like congratulating yourself for losing 20 pounds by eating a whole chocolate cake.  It makes no sense.

But once you figure out how you got into this mess - and who is to blame (you, not the government or the banks).  You can take steps to get out:


1.  Cut services, sell stuff:   If you are falling behind on your bills, or "living paycheck to paycheck" or even "making all your payments" but not saving for the future, you are living beyond your means.  The only way out of this is to lower your lifestyle standards.  You are living a lifestyle you can't afford, and you need to come to grips with this.  You can't have it all, so figure out what it is that you really need and get rid of the rest.  And a lot of what you think you need is really just crap you want.   You will have to do this, no matter what you do in the next steps, otherwise you will end up where you started in a few years.  So do this and do it now. Cut Cable, get rid of cell phones, sell that hobby car, bike, boat, etc.  You can't afford it.  You only think you can.  $100 a month is $125,000 out of your 401(k) at retirement.

2.  Figure out if you can pay your debts:   Chances are, you can't.  Most people, once in debt, will never get out, without Bankruptcy.  But if you can sell enough crap and cut cable TV, cell phones, get a roommate, or whatever, you might be able to whittle down the debt, over time.  I was able to do this, only because I had a lot of crap to get rid of - and was not ashamed to cut everything to the bone!  On the other hand, if you are already severely delinquent and have high interest loans, forgetabout it!  You are headed to Bankruptcy, and the sooner you go there, the better.

3.  Declare Bankruptcy:  If you have more debts than assets and not enough income to pay off your debts, you are bankrupt, by definition.  Cut to the chase and go for it.  Find a real Bankruptcy Lawyer, not some stupid online con-man, and talk to him.  Bankruptcy won't discharge all your debts, but it will preserve your 401(K) and IRA (which is a good reason to have both) and allow you to keep some things like your car and tools of the trade (in some States) and work out payments on some debts.  This surely beats watching your car be towed away and your bank account be drained.   And it puts a dead halt to collection agencies.

4.  You have a fresh start - don't blow it!   A lot of people who declare bankruptcy end up in the same trouble down the road, as they just go back to doing what they were doing before, only worse.  Within a decade, they are back at step 1, and on their way to step 3 again.  If you want to be a perpetual SLAVE in life - owing money for junk and crap and feeling put upon, that is a lifestyle choice, not a preordained condition.  Look around and think about what you really want out of life.  Is a fancy car worth not funding your retirement?  Is having a Harley worth worrying about making the payments?  And what happens to this debt bandwagon if you get sick, get in an accident, lose your job, or the economy tanks?  Why live on the knife's edge of life so you can have a fancy cell phone?   Re-think your priorities and start accumulating real wealth.

Now, of course, this advice all falls on deaf ears.   People read this and whine, "But Bob!  That's haaaarrrrd!  I wanna keep all my crap and wave a magic wand and make the bad things go away!"

And I wish I could help you, but life doesn't work that way.   Life may seem harsh and difficult, but if you confront it head on, as opposed to living in denial, it is not as scary as it seems.   But this requires you to live in the real world, not some pot-smoke clouded fantasy land.

Do the hard thing.  It pays off in the long run.

A Special Note About Student Loans:  Student Loans, at the present time, are not discharged through bankruptcy, unless "extreme hardship" can be shown.   And living without a smart phone is not "extreme hardship".  Such hardship discharges (usually adjustments) have been few and far between.  But help might be on the horizon.

First, though, put your debt into perspective.  I have seen former students whining about $25,000 to $50,000 in student loan debt.   This is the price of one or two medium-priced cars in the United States.  Considering that in your lifetime, you will pay off the loans on 5-10 cars, this is hardly a staggering amount of debt to pay off.   Once you start making money, and as time and inflation devalue the dollar, you will look back and laugh at how you worried about such trivial amounts.  It may seem like a lot of money now, but in 5-10 years, you likely will be buying a house worth twice to three times that amount.  Put things in perspective!

The other thing is that in 2012, new programs have been initiated to allow for some Student Loan Debt relief.  Two programs tie the payments to a percentage (10% or 15%) of your annual income for a number of years, making it easier to make the payments when you first get out of college.  But these programs apply toward Federally guaranteed student loans only.  Private loans might not qualify.  Many people apparently don't even know about these programs, as they are not well advertised, and the application process is not easy.

There are proposals for a "Student Loan Forgiveness" act that would allow you to pay 10% of your discretionary income for ten years, and then forgive the remainder of the debt.  However, this is merely a proposal at this point, and would apply to Federal Student Loans only, not private loans.  According to some sources, this act (which is currently in committee) has a 5% chance of being voted on, and a 1% chance of passing.  Don't get your hopes up.

And if you are reading this and contemplating a Private Student Loan and/or going to a "For Profit" University - RUN AWAY as fast as possible.  Such degrees are worthless and such loans are toxic.

There are ways to go to college and even graduate school on a budget, but it requires you to think hard, work hard, and scrimp and save - all hard things.  But if you really are smart enough to go to college, you should be able to figure these things out.

There are no magic wands.  There are no Genies out there.  Sorry to be bearer of bad tidings, but that is the nature of the world and reality.   The good news is, of course, that reality is very value-neutral, and if you choose to live in it (as opposed to fantasy-land) you will do well in this world.

All you need do is act rationally in an irrational world.  Others will squander while you save, and you will come out on top!

Gun Nutz

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Want to creep out your friends, make yourself unattractive to the opposite sex, as well as basically unemployable?   Start collecting high-powered weaponry!  Gun Nutz are just that - crazy.  And no one likes crazy people!
The recent shootings in America (and there a lot of them, every day, that do not get reported beyond the local papers) have everyone "up in arms" (if you will pardon the pun) about gun control.

The NRA, which represents 4 million members (out of a country of 300+ Million) has Washington terrorized.  Cross the NRA and you will not get re-elected!  Those 4 million people must vote twice or something.

But the NRA is an interesting beast.  Many of my hunting friends are disgusted with it.   They keep their membership only to get member benefits and discounts.  Others have dropped their memberships, particularly when Wayne "Call Me Crazy" LaPierre says offensive and bizarre things.  George HW Bush tore up his life member card in 1996 over LaPierre's comments following the Oklahoma City bombing.

The idea that the NRA represents the voices of all gun owners is flawed.  And as hunting declines in popularity in this country, more and more of the "hard core" NRA membership comprises gun collectors who collect arsenals of assault weapons - spending the weekend shooting up old appliances and cars (instead of deer or paper targets) on modern, automatic-weapon-friendly shooting ranges.

As sales of hunting rifles have dropped, sales of assault-style firearms to non-hunters has risen.  The NRA is following the market - or perhaps leading it.  By creating demand for high-power weaponry (and arsenals of weapons) among citizens, the NRA primes the pump on sales.  And every time new gun legislation is talked about, the NRA raises the alarm - and gun sales skyrocket.

As I noted in another posting, I have nothing against firearms.  Owning a rifle or shotgun for hunting is not a bad thing.  You might even buy a handgun for "protection" - although as I noted, it is like buying a parachute on the premise you might fall off a tall building.  It is an expensive form of protection, and the odds you will need it are slim - and the odds you will have it, at the right time and right place, are even slimmer.  But the odds that it will go off at the wrong time and hurt someone - including yourself - are pretty high.

But that is the thing about poor and stupid people (which are overlapping groups):  One profound tagging characteristic of the poor is their inability to comprehend probability or understand their real risks in life.  They over-insure for long-shots, while leaving huge vulnerabilities unprotected.  They gamble in casinos, convinced they can "win" when the odds are stacked against them.  They are convinced that confronting a criminal is a common even in life, but that failing to save for retirement is nothing to worry about.  The less you understand probability, the poorer you will be.

The odds of you being a victim of a violent crime are slim - despite what you see on the television (which is all crime shows, mostly).   The odds that you will "twart" a crime with a gun of your own are infinitesimal.  That is the sum and substance of it, really, if you want to believe the real numbers.  The NRA prefers instead to tout anecdotal evidence of robberies and other crimes thwarted by gun-toting citizens.  The reality is, this rarely happens in real life.

But hey, if you want to buy a pistol, then go for it. Just be very careful with it.  I have a number of friends who have or had guns, and from what I can see, many of them are not very careful.  They show them off to friends (a bad idea in and of itself), for example, not realizing they are loaded (an even worse idea).  And this happens a lot, too.  Just the other day, some guy shot his own kid, not realizing there was a bullet in the chamber.  Dumb, yea, but with a gun, there often is no second chance.

Out in the country, we have rifles and pistols for other reasons - dispatching rabid raccoons, for example.  They do have legitimate uses.  And having a firearm around - kept safely - can be handy.

But there are a number of people in this country who are not just buying a pistol for protection or a rifle to go hunting with.  They buy many weapons - often dozens - and thousands of rounds of ammunition.  They hoard guns and then spend their leisure time shooting them.  These are what I call "Gun Nutz".

Now granted, some are collectors, looking to own a number of fine antiques.  These are not what  I am talking about.  The collector values a gun for its rarity, craftsmanship, cultural or historical significance.  They take care of them, shoot them only occasionally (if at all), and cherish them as part of a collection.

The Gun Nutz are more concerned with firepower - how many rounds the gun will hold, its "stopping power" and the like.  And when they shoot, they don't go after paper targets, but rather, like little children, like to shoot at old cars or appliances, to witness the destruction involved.  Or they shoot at watermelons, secretly pretending it is someone's head they are exploding with their teflon-coated "cop-killer" bullets.

Gun Nutz are just plain crazy.

And unfortunately, this kind of crazy makes people shy away from them, which in turn leads them to feel more and more isolated.  Many of them - usually men - take up this form of hobby as a means of feeling more powerful - part and parcel of the Culture of Belligerence that I wrote about before.   They buy guns to feel more in control of their lives, which are often on the verge of falling apart.  And of course, part of this is due to the face they spend so much money on guns.

And Gun Nutz make all sorts of crazy claims which are part and parcel of their craziness and distance from reality:
"Our freedom to own firearms is the only thing preventing our country from turning into a Police State!" one says, neglecting to realize that most of Europe, Japan, Australia, and a number of other countries have more reasonable restrictions on firearms (but not outright bans, despite what they may say) and are hardly Police States.

"No country would dare attack us, because our citizenry is armed!" another says.  Again this sense of self-aggrandizement raises its ugly head.  Our country is safe because we have the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world, plus the largest Navy, Army, Air Force, and Marine Corps - and a Defense budget larger than the next ten largest countries combined.   That is what is keeping us free, not a bunch of yahoos shooting at washing machines in a gully on the weekends.
But again, Gun Nutz live in their own little world, full of conspiracy theories, and dark secrets, usually spread by e-mails and wacky websites - information that the "mainstream  media" doesn't want to read, of course!  They are, nuts.

And I predict that is only a matter of time before they start arguing that the recent shootings were in fact staged, so "Obama can use them as justification to take away our guns!"  Coming soon to a conspiracy website near you!

The problem with being Gun Nutz is that is isolates you from society.  Normal human beings will shun you for being crazy (because you likely are a little off) and thus add to your feelings of isolation.  Relying more and more on reinforcement from fringe websites and peer groups, the gun nut will become more and more paranoid, and thus buy more guns.  And the NRA is complicit in this scheme, as they crank up the paranoia to level 11 in every publication and plea for more money.  Like the fundamentalist churches, they claim to be persecuted, even as everyone goes out of their way not to step on any toes.

And one sure way to improve your mental health is to stop acting crazy.  Renounce conspiracy theories (which are total time wasters and do nothing for your personal life) and stop acting weird.  Pretty soon, you may actually stop being weird.   It can't hurt to try, can it?

I had a friend who had a small arsenal of about 15 guns - rifles, shotguns, pistols, etc, including an assault-style rifle.  And no, he didn't hunt, either.  He lived in a nice wealthy suburban neighborhood that was hardly "dangerous".   He lived in fear of being robbed or burgled.  And fear is an emotion not to be trusted.   He was always having financial troubles, but every spare dollar he put into weaponry and ammo.    And he was creepy and weird.  He had trouble making friends and finding a mate.  Women got creeped out by him after a date or two, particularly when he suggested they go to the firing range.  Maybe that works as a romantic date in Wasilla, Alaska, but in most urban areas, it just makes people edgy.  

And his friends and employers started to view him as an oddball - and wonder when he would "go off" with all these weapons that he had for no apparent real reason.  His view of the world was paranoid.  He was convinced that he would be robbed, burgled, mugged, or assaulted at any given moment.  And of course, he held wild right-wing views and listened to talk radio all day long.  He was a political junkie, and made his personality so toxic that no one wanted to be around him - except his Mom.

Another fellow, at the Patent Office, brought his gun to work, so he could park in a bad part of town and walk to the office.  This was, of course, a violation of Federal Law.  And on one dark night, some kids jumped him, and he pulled out his gun. They took it away from him and shot him with it, killing him.  The NRA made him a poster-boy for gun rights, even as he was killed with his own handgun.  Go figure.

Was it really worth it?

He was a creepy dude, too.  Never bathed.  And he had a life-sized poster of Oliver North on his office wall.  The last time I saw him, he couldn't understand why he wasn't getting any job offers from law firms.   Can you think of some reasons why you wouldn't hire him?  I can.
 
These are the same kind of folks who are buying gold or building bunkers for "the end times".  But none of them are funding their 401(k) as they think "Wall Street is a scam".   Betting on the rapture as your retirement plan is pretty short-sighted.  The reality is, you will likely get old and retire, and be broke, sitting in your bunker with your 20,000 rounds of moldy ammunition and canned goods.
Is that how you want to live? Really? All you gun nuts?  There is another way.....
People who collect guns are creepy and weird. Frankly, almost everyone I know who has multiple firearms (not for hunting) is someone I would not be surprised to hear about in the news as a mass-shooter.  But even if they don't "go off" over time, these sorts of people are creating their own misery in life, one gun at a time.  With every purchase, they push themselves closer and closer to weirdness.  And the end result is, well, the spokesman for creepy and weird, Wayne "Call Me Crazy" LaPierre.

No one likes gun nuts, except other gun nuts, which probably lends to their isolation and feelings of alienation. You go down the gun-nut road, expect to end up like this disturbed kid and his Mom (who was not a "warm and caring person" if she kept an AR-15 in the house, PERIOD) or like Ted Nugent (who said, live on stage, that he wanted Obama to suck on his machine gun and make Hillary "ride" it as well - sick, sick, sick!).

Fun people, huh? And Fox News had Nugent as a regular contributor. And yes, it is a crime to threaten the President, and the Secret Service paid a visit to Mr. Nugent as a result of his "joke". He is one sick MF, is all I can say. And his music sucks.

Maybe what we need are public service announcements, like they have for cigarettes - to drive home the point that owning a lot of guns isn't cool - its just creepy and weird.  Maybe if gun nuts understood the reason the rest of us avoid them is because we think they are crazy. And no one likes crazy.

And to all of you folks who say stupid stuff like "Guns don't kill people, people kill people", I am TALKING ABOUT YOU.  You are creepy and weird and no one likes you - because you use guns to overcompensate for your feelings of inadequacy and powerlessness.  They are just mechanical penises.
The NRA argues that "Well, any attempt to regulate firearms won't work 100% of the time because....." And that is true, nothing is 100% effective, whether it is seatbelt laws or whatever. You can only try to improve the situation, not make things PERFECT.  The NRA argument is that if you can't do something that is 100% effective you might as well NOT BOTHER TRYING. Makes sense, right? Unless something works all the time, why bother?   But even if we could reduce the incidence of these types of crimes by 50% or even 10%, it would be worthwhile to do SOMETHING.

And they dig this up every time there is a shooting.  "Well, existing gun laws clearly don't work, so why pass more?"   Well, of course, one reason they don't work is that the NRA has insured that any existing gun laws are so crippled so they don't work.  The instant background check is a good idea, but covers only sales through gun stores.  Buy at a gun show or from a neighbor, and the system isn't applicable.

That would be akin to saying marijuana is illegal to sell - in grocery stores.   Such a law wouldn't do much, would it?

Every time there is a mass-shooting like this, the NRA trots out the same tired old arguments:
1. " HOW DARE YOU bring up gun control, so soon after a tragic incident?" - an effective argument, as there are so many "tragic incidents" that they overlap these days, effectively cutting off any debate. My response: HOW DARE THE NRA tells us when we can talk about things!

2. "Unless the Proposed Reform works 100% of the time, why bother trying?" See above. Again, this is an effective argument for cutting off all debate, as no solution will work all the time. Even in countries with gun control laws, like the UK and Denmark, there are shootings. JUST NOT AS MANY.....
 3. "Guns Don't Kill People, People Kill People!" - this is a non-sequitur and makes no sense at all.  This week, a man went into a classroom in China and assaulted a number of kids - with a knife.   No one died as a result.  Why? Because  it is a lot harder and takes longer to kill with a knife.   Guns are different than other weapons.

4.  "They have gun laws in Europe and I read about a shooting there the other day!"  Again, the 100%-or-nothing argument, with some anecdotal evidence tossed in.  Gun laws in Europe do work and the evidence of this is in the utter lack of significant gun crime there.  Yes, they have crime there, but on a scale far, far smaller than in the USA.  Isn't less crime a desirable thing?
5.  "The mainstream media never reports how many crimes are thwarted by gun-carrying citizens! Why just the other day in Squirrel Hollow, a rapist was stopped by a man with a gun!"   The media doesn't report these stories as there are not that many of them.  In terms of crime-stopping, people carrying handguns thwart a pathetically tiny fraction of crimes.  Again, ancedotal evidence is not real evidence.  It is just stories people tell each other like the stories about "voter fraud" the GOP likes to toss around.

Expect to see more damage control in the next few weeks, as the NRA circles the wagons and raises these same three issues, again and again.

Yea, Gun Nutz have a firm grip on reality, that's for sure!

But the main thing is, if you want to be a gun nut, you are intentionally going down a path of poverty and privation.  Most gun nutz are from the lower classes and by spending thousands and even tens of thousands of dollars on weaponry and ammunition, they keep themselves there.

I have seen people who can barely feed themselves and who are "living paycheck to paycheck" go out and buy a $500 pistol and spend hundreds of dollars on ammunition every weekend at the firing range, firing it.    To solve this problem, they go out and by a match target pistol (another $250) that fires cheaper ammunition.

Yes, it is fun to have a hobby, but if you can't afford to fund your retirement, think hard before you spend bucks on guns.  And think about how it is going to affect your social life and employability.

Because when you go to a job interview spouting off conspiracy theory shit and showing people pictures of your gun collection on your iPhone (yes, I have seen this) your resume goes in the trash.

There is no profit in being a gun nut!

Save Time With Ivacationonline's Email Quote System

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ivacationonline.com's new email quoting system.

Are you ready to stop wasting time when it comes to replying to rental inquiries for your vacation home or condo? ivacationonline unveils its new Email Quoting System for vacation rental inquires. During the busy seasons of the vacation rental business the inquiries can come in droves. This is especially true when you are property manager and are handling the bookings for ten, twenty, thirty or more properties. With the average property getting 20-30 inquiries a week, multiplying that amount of emails by 30 can lead to an email overload.

Individually answering each email with additional information and pricing, not only wastes time but can cost you bookings as well. The new email quote system gives you the option of answering emails with a single click or just a simple copy and paste.

The email quote system gives you 3 options:

  • Property is available email
  • Property is unavailable email
  • Visitor email


In each pre-propagated email you can put in pertinent information, answer redundant questions, send a price quote, and have a link directly to your properties booking page. This saves you time by not having to answer several emails to the same potential renter, and because now they have practically everything they want to know in one email they can make the decision to rent your property.

Many vacation rental customers will send out 10 or more inquiries and normally cannot remember which property was which, but with the ivacationonline.com Email Quote System you will be sending them; a picture of the property, the address, the pricing breakdown, down payment amount, security deposit, and payment schedule. Don't forget the email includes a direct link to your booking page so that a renter can book their stay online with ease. This link to the booking page makes it easier than ever for a potential renter to book you property online.

The system, once you have set up your responses can save you approximately 80% of the time you were spending answering emails. That is correct 80%, and this time saved is money made. It is proven in this industry that home owners and managers who respond faster to inquiries GET MORE BOOKINGS!

Another great feature of the system is when a visitor clicks on your Email Quote button they have the option to send all of the information to every person in their party. This is a major factor in getting more booking and renting your property faster. Every property owner has heard this, "I love the place but I have to show it to the others in our group to see if it is ok with them". Now everyone involved gets all of the information instantly so that your potential vacationers can make a decision faster.

So now that you know all of the time saving benefits, the money making advantages, and the customer service upgrades, you're probably asking what will this additional service from ivacationonline.com cost me. The answer is, nothing, that's right, if you are already a member of the ivacationonline.com property management software system website there is no charge to you, it' free! Also if you are not already a member of ivacationonline.com simply sign up for a 30 day free trial and see how easy renting your vacation home or condo can be.

Visit http://www.ivacationonline.com/ today, click on the risk free 30 day trial offer, and enjoy the benefits of online property management.

Learn about:

Our live calendar
Emailing contracts
Renter updating email system
Online booking payment system
Credit card acceptance
Damage insurance
Travel insurance
The "Cancel For Any Reason Plan"
Voice description for your property
Video and photos of your home
Google Maps
Picasa
And our new Email Quote System

All of this and more on one easy to use website plus a customer service center that is second to none.

One More Reason To Join ivacationonline's Vacation Rental Software Website

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As if there were not enough reason to join ivacationonline.com's vacation rental property management software website, here is another. Ivacationonline is the only property management software website that actually pays to advertise on Google and other major search engines to drive targeted traffic to its website. The traffic that ivacationonline markets for on these search engines is specifically tailored to potential renters who are searching for vacation rentals.

Ivacationonline.com does not directly benefit from this traffic or from the rentals its customers receive. So why do they do it? Simple they what their customers to be successful. Ivacationonline.com is sending potential renters directly to you and they are paying the bill. It's just one of the many, many reasons you should be using ivacationonline's online property management software and if you already are a member it is just one more reason for something you already know. That ivacationonline.com is the best way to manage your vacation properties, 2nd home, timeshare condos, or rental property.

VRBO Founder's Story

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Vacation Rental Site Reviews
I am always intrigued to find out the stories behind successful companies. Even the largest company had to start somewhere and the path to success is rarely smooth or even planned.

To take a case in point, VRBO founder  David Clouse and his wife Lynn started VRBO.com (Vacation Rental by Owners) as a way to help rent their ski condo. As the site grew it took up more and more of there time until it became a full time job. VRBO was a pioneer in the "vacation rentals by owner" industry, quickly becoming the market leader, before eventually being acquired by Homeaway.

David had spent a number of years as a programmer in the hospitality industry and initially was simply using his skills to save money on rental agents. In the early days, websites were fairly primitive and VRBO was initially no exception, with no graphics and limited functionality. However, through hard work and a keen business sense, David and Lynn built a very successful business. 


VRBO is still sometimes criticised for his fairly basic user interface .... but you can't argue with brand and business success. 


If you are interested, you can out find more about the background to vrbo.com and other successful internet companies at Interviewbooks.com

1 Ocak 2013 Salı

Insights from Annual Credit Report

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It's that time of year again.  Time to go see a movie and get Chinese take-out - and run my Annual Credit Report.

Christmas is a dull time, nothing to do except see a movie and get Chinese take-out.  Everything else is closed, although this is changing as retailers realized everyone is bored out of their minds staying with family, so they want to go shopping.

Myself, I run my annual credit report - although at this stage in my life, I really don't need to do so, as I have no debts and no need for debt. 

(And by the way, if you want your free annual credit report, go to annualcreditreport.com for the real deal, not that faked-up "free" one which is a scam. )

Nevertheless it is an interesting exercise and a good way to monitor for illegal activity involving your credit.

And it provides some insights, too.  Profound ones.  I came away with several:

1.  I took out a lot of mortgages in my life, many of them re-fis.  I paid a lot of fees to refinance debts, which was just a way of moving debt around and creating more debt, over time.

2.  I had a lot of credit card debt at one time - tens of thousands of it.  I am lucky I had the assets to sell to pay them off.  Most folks don't.  The amount of interest paid, over time, was staggering.

3.  I had a mortgage payment of over $2700 a month at one time - on a 30 year note.  Do the math on this!  The income stream needed to support that debt load was well over $100,000 a year.  And for what?
This last item was illuminating.   If I had paid off the note on that loan, I would have paid nearly a million dollars, over time, on a loan having a principal of $350,000.

And yet, that is not an unusual amount for a mortgage in many parts of the country.  And yet these same people claim they will never be able to save up a million dollars by retirement.   But they will pay nearly half that much in interest, over time!

And other folks will say, "Well, it makes no sense to pay off a mortgage or pay it down, as it is tax-deductible interest!"  But even if you are in the 35% tax bracket, it only means that you get back maybe $200,000 of this interest expense, over time, on your taxes.

Not paying $2700 a month (I've paid less than that for cars, for chrissakes!) means that I can put aside more and live on far less - two big pluses when heading to retirement.

"But," you say, "Everyone needs a place to live!  You have to have a mortgage when you first start out!"

And that is true.  But in my case, I didn't "need" a $350,000 mortgage so much as I ended up with one.   I started out with a $180,000 mortgage and worked my way up - using home equity loans and refinancing to add to my debt over time (as housing values increased) rather than paying down debt.

This is a familiar scenario to many people - many of my friends and acquaintances - as they lived beyond their means then then paid for it all with borrowed money from phantom equity in their homes.

I was lucky, of course.  Or smart, or both.   I had equity in investment Real Estate that I could sell and pay off all this debt.  This meant, of course, having less "stuff" but it also meant being debt-free.

A lot of folks at my age and station in life are not so lucky.  Middle-aged professionals, making the six-figure salary, figure they are "doing OK" as they are making all their bills every month.  They owe the bank more on their home that they paid for it, thanks to refinancing.  And the term of their mortgage will extend well into their retirement years at this point.

They have to hope that they never lose their job and that their house continues to increase in value, over time, so they can sell it before they retire.

Debt is a trap - a huge trap.   If you are already in it, there is not much you can do.  But as someone who escaped from that trap by gnawing off their own leg, let me tell you younger folks to think twice before stepping in it.  You may not be as lucky as I was.

The economy will improve in the next 5-10 years, and interest rates may remain low.  It will be tempting, as your salary increases, to take on more debt for consumer toys, a larger house, or whatever.   And when the payments get to be too much, it will be tempting to "refinance" that debt in a home equity loan and then leverage yourself further.   This was the pattern for the middle class over the last decade.

Learn from the mistakes of my generation, if you can.   Debt is a deadly trap, and there is no easy way out of it.  The best thing you can do is avoid stepping in it.

Hidden Costs of Car Buying

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There are a lot of hidden costs in buying a car - costs you might not think about while looking at a shiny new car under the bright lights of the dealer showroom.  The dealer says you are approved for the loan, but think about other costs before you sign on the dotted line.
I was having the front-end aligned on the X5 the other day.  I had replaced the struts, control arms, ball joints, tie rod ends, axle half-shafts, wheel bearings, and a number of other parts, which requires that the front-end be re-aligned (actually all four wheels aligned on this car).  While I was waiting, I went though our service records and noticed that there were a lot of costs in owning a car that I had not thought about.  (I keep all the records for the car in a big binder with page protectors.  It is interesting to see how much you can spend on a car, over time!).

When we bought this car, secondhand, in Florida, we paid $25,900 for it.  It had a little under 50,000 miles, and was four years old, and the price paid was a little more than half the retail price when new (again, most cars depreciate about 50% every five years).

We've put 100,000 miles on it, over the last six years, and it is showing signs of age.  The end game might not be here yet, but I can see it on the horizon, and I am starting to think about what to replace the vehicle with.   As its resale value drops to below $10,000, and as small things start to break and become annoying, it is only a matter of time before we have to buy something else.

But what?  And when?   Does it make sense to jump ship now, or hang on until the bitter end?   The more I started investigating the matter, the more it dawned upon me that there are a lot of "hidden" costs in buying a new or newer car - costs that we don't think about when looking at the shiny dealer brochures.


1. Taxes

In going through my records, what staggered me was the sales tax we had to pay to Florida - a whopping 5% or more, totaling over $1500 just in taxes alone!  And yes, $1500 is a lot of money.  I have bought cars for less than this.

And that is the irony right there.  A lot of people will "dump" a used car because it needs $1000 in repairs, and then go out and buy a new (or newer) car and pay $1500 in sales taxes right off the bat.

And the tax man doesn't end his bite there.  In many jurisdictions, an annual property tax or ad valorum tax is added to your registration fee, or collected separately.  Until recently, in Georgia, we paid this tax - about 1.2% every year, or about $250 on a $20,000 car.   In Alexandria, Virginia, we paid "personal property taxes" as high as 4.5% on our cars - which could be well over $1000 a year on even a modest mid-sized sedan.

And you wonder why this "tax revolt" thing has taken hold in the South.....

Your used car, parked in the driveway, requires no sales tax payments.  And moreover, since it has a very low "book value" your ad valorum or property tax every year, will be low - and get lower over time.

Here in Georgia, they recently abolished the ad valorum tax and claimed to abolish the "sales tax" on cars.  But of course, they just replaced these both with a one-time title tax of a whopping 7%.   So on a $20,000 car, you will have to cough up $1400 just in "title tax" before you can drive it home.  And yes, $1400 is a lot of money.

(UPDATE:  In Georgia, the "sales tax" was only applicable to sales from Car Dealers (you would think this would have boosted private party sales tremendously, but most folks don't think that carefully - and that is why these are "hidden" costs).   Effective March 1, 2013, the "Title Tax" will be applied to all car sales, dealer or private, and the Ad Valorum tax will go away for cars titled after March 1, 2013 (according to the radio).  However, the Ad Valorum tax will still be applied to cars you own before then.  This amounts to about $50 a car for me.  However, you may opt to pay the Title tax between now and then, and avoid the Ad Valroum tax perpetually.  It appears that an interesting "loophole" exists between now and March 15.  If you buy a car from a private seller between now and then, you can pay the 6.6% sales tax but you won't have to pay Ad Valorum tax.   Or, if the car is of lesser value, you may opt to pay the Ad Valorum tax, particularly if you are buying from a private seller and don't plan on keeping the car very long.  An interesting calculation would have to be made.)

But most people don't think about taxes - or if they do, they think about their Federal Income Taxes, which of all the taxes they pay (if indeed, they pay any) are likely the smallest of any single tax.   There are people in the middle class or lower middle class who likely would pay more in sales taxes in any given year than they do in Federal Income tax.  But they are all teabaggers and convinced that Obama has "raised my taxes!".  Go Figure.

But to people with poor money skills (which was me, until a few years ago) sales tax is sort of a "whatever" kind of thing - the cost of doing business and a trivial few percentage points.   And when the tax is 4% or less, I guess we can think that.  But in places like Georgia and New York, where the tax is 7% or more, it becomes a big deal - even for small purchases.

Of course, one way to cheat the tax man is to consume less.   A $10,000 car has half the tax bill of a $20,000 car, and so on.   And this applies to all parts of your life.  If you spend a dollar less, the tax man is cheated out of seven more cents.   The more you consume, the more taxes you end up paying.

The best used car value is often parked in your driveway - as I like to note, time and again.  If you decide to "swap" cars on a regular basis, you end up paying a lot in transaction costs alone, including this sales tax or title tax, or whatever - plus other tag and title fees.

Of course, eventually, all cars wear out, and you have to get something newer to drive.  Death and Taxes - they are unavoidable.   But the longer you can cost-effectively keep your car, the less you pay in taxes, overall, in your life.

If you have a car that is getting old - but is still serviceable - think about whether you are buying new or newer because you need a new car, or merely because you want one.


2.  Insurance

I have very cheap insurance through GEICO.  I pay about $16 a month in liability coverage, and if I want it, Collision and Comprehensive is another $17 a month.  That's about $420 a year, which is pretty cheap insurance coverage.  Most people pay far more than this for car insurance.

GEICO rocks, and their website is very well done.  By going online and logging in, I can get a quote on the cost of deleting one car and replacing with another.  If I delete the X5 and replace it with a $22,000 Nissan Pickup truck, my insurance will go up by $295.20 a year.

Again, this might not seem like a lot of money to most folks, but it does add up, over time.  If you add this to the sales taxes and the ad valorum taxes (if applicable in your jurisdiction), you may be looking at close to $2,000 just in added expenses during the first year - above and beyond the car payments you make.

And this is assuming insurance rates remain constant.  The big trap - as I have noted before - for younger people, is to buy a new car, get some speeding tickets or get in an accident (or a DUI), and then see insurance rates spike to $3000 a year or more - sometimes far more.   At age 25, you can buy a new car, get a few tickets, and literally go bankrupt.

And those car payments aren't cheap, either.  Even at low, low financing rates, you are looking at $400 a month or more for payments on even a modest car.   Paying cash may save you a little in interest charges, but it still takes a huge dent out of your net worth.

Again, overall costs trump monthly expenses but most folks only think in terms of the latter.


3. Loan Costs:   If you finance a car purchase (new or used) they often tack on "loan document fees" or some other such crap, if you finance through the dealer.   Some dealers have the chutzpah to tack on as much as $500 in "document fees" or some such nonsense - if you are dumb enough to pay it.

And of course, you pay interest, although today this is far less than the 10% we used to pay.  Even if you can get one of these 2.9% financing deals (which are usually a gag - they tell you that you can't qualify and offer you a higher interest rate) then you end up paying $1509.40 in interest, over five years.

There are other costs, of course.  Many dealers charge you a nominal amount for temp tags and licensing the car.  They collect a whole bunch of registrations together and then once a week (or month) send a low-paid flunky down to DMV to stand in line for all of them.  This saves you time, of course, but you do pay for it.  And as likely they will get you new tags, you will pay a new tag and registration fee as well.   This can end up costing $100 to $250 depending on the dealer.  If you buy a car from an individual or do the tagwork yourself, you may be able to transfer tags and save some money here.  But few people do it.  Why?  Because they are spending $20,000 or more and think that "$100 isn't a lot of money!"

Note that I didn't raise opportunity cost arguments here.  A dealer salesman will say stupid things like, "If you pay cash for the car, you are losing the opportunity cost of investing that money!" - particularly when they are trying to lease you a car.   The argument makes little sense and can be cut both ways.   Buy purchasing the car, period, you are forgoing the opportunity cost of putting $22,000 into your IRA or 401(k), at the rate of $500 a month.   Borrowing money to save money is an argument that makes no sense at all.


4. Overall Cost to Your Net Worth.

The main thing people miss, in buying and selling cars, is the overall cost of the transaction, or the dent it puts in your net worth.  Let's take a look at the overall transaction costs of keeping the X5 for another five years versus buying the small pickup truck.

If we assume that a vehicle depreciates about 50% in value every five years (which is a rational assumption, as most vehicles fall roughly within this range), the X5 will depreciate about $4500 in five years.   The new or newer Nissan pickup will depreciate $11,000 in the same five years.

The sales tax will be 7% or about $1540.  Since we don't have ad valorum taxes anymore, we can skip that.  But the insurance (at $292.20 per year) will be an additional $1462.50 overall, for five years.

The gas mileage and general maintenance (oil changes, etc.) will be about the same, although some dealers are offering "free oil changes for life" as an incentive to come back to the dealership often, to sell warranty service or to try to entice an owner into a new car.  Oil changes are so infrequent these days, and so inexpensive (if you do them at home) that this is not a major expense.   But let's throw in $100 a year for oil changes.

Repairs are where things get hard to calculate.  It is not possible to precisely predict repairs on an older car.  And whether a car will last another X miles is difficult to predict.  Usually, what kills off a car is an accident or repair that exceeds resale value.   So even a minor collision or an engine or transmission overhaul is enough to send most 10-20 year old cars to the wreckers, in short order.   At 140,000 miles, I think we can safely assume that the major components of the X5 will last until 200,000 miles or so, although the engine will likely be using more oil by then.

But the car will likely need a new set of tires ($600 to $1200) before then, and perhaps a new clutch ($1200) as well as other miscellaneous repairs and overhauls (although I have replaced so many parts on the car already, that perhaps the latter is not that great).  But let's assume $1000 a year for repairs - which is generous - which would amount to $5000 over five years.

So, which is the better deal over five years?

New (or Newer) $22,000 Pickup truck:

1.  Depreciation:  $11,000
2.  Sales Tax:    $1,540
3.  Insurance (increase):  $1,462.50
4.  Repairs:  $0

Total:  $14,002.50

Interesting to note that on a $22,000 truck, the actual costs, over five years, are nearly 3/4 of the sales price.  So how does this compare to keeping the older car for five years?

1.  Depreciation:  $4500
2.  Sales Tax:  $0
3.  Insurance (increase):  $0
4.  Repairs: $5000

Total:  $9500

Savings: $4502.50

So there is considerable savings in keeping the older car - about $1000 a year.    Add in loan interest (if applicable) and you've got another $1500 in the mix.  And this calculation was made by generously assuming that repair costs would be $1000 per year.   But as a consumer, I have some control over repair costs, as I do a lot of work myself (the front end work cost $700 in parts, whereas a mechanic would have charged over $3000 for such a repair, and the dealer, over $5000)  and also I can control repairs to some extent by how aggressively I drive the vehicle.  So the savings could be even greater.

When you buy a car, you are jumping on a new depreciation curve.   You pay $20,000 for a car, your net worth is decreased by $20,000 and increased by the resale value of the car (usually 10-15% less than the price paid for the car, if bought new).   And over time, you use up that car, and eventually end up poorer as a result.

The longer you can keep a car, the further you come out ahead - until the car reaches its end game.

* * * 
There are a couple of caveats and "But, what about..." kind of things that I am sure that some folks will point out.


1.  You'd have to pay the sales tax eventually:  Yes, it is true that the X5, like most cars, will go to the boneyard eventually.  Even cars that end up as "collectors items" end up going out of service, as they become more talismans of cars than actual cars.  People keep an old muscle car in their garage for 40 years, true - but they don't drive it as general transportation, as a general rule.

So it is true that this car will be junked someday, and I likely will "fish further upstream" for a newer car.  And at that point, I will have to pay that $1540 in sales tax.

But a tax deferred is a tax denied.  If, over your lifetime, you buy 10 cars for $22,000 each, you will pay $15,400 in sales taxes on those cars (at the 7% rate, anyway).  On the other hand, if you can buy 9 cars, or eight cars, you will save $1540 for each car you don't end up adding to your collection.

Life is finite, and the number of cars you own is finite.  So there is a real savings on deferring a tax, if you can possibly do it.   And there is an additional savings in that the money not paid in taxes is money that stays in your 401(k) or could be invested - yielding income over time.  And yes, this is an "opportunity cost" argument - but one that makes sense, when you are saving money (car dealers will use "opportunity cost" arguments to convince you to buy, but such arguments are specious at best.)

Similarly, while all cars depreciate at about the same rate (about 50% every five years) the cash amount is less as the car gets older.   In your lifetime, if you buy 10 cars for $22,000 each and keep each car for five years, you will spend about  $110,000 in depreciation.  On the other hand, if you buy 5 cars for $22,000 each, and keep each one for 10 years, you will spend about $82,500 on depreciation - a savings of $27,500 over your lifetime (which is more than most people have in their 401(k)).



2.  Reliability:   A lot of people say, "Well, I need a car that is reliable as I have to get to work!"  And this is true.  But reliability and age of a vehicle, while related, do not necessarily go hand in hand.

As I wrote before, the Weibull curve does kick in, over time, and eventually it makes no sense to keep a car forever.  Cars wear out and it is time to junk them - eventually.   But the reliability thing is, to some extent, a function of how you care for a car and what kind of car it is.

A clunker near the end of its design life, that is treated indifferently, will tend to leave you by the side of the road, on occasion, and this can be inconvenient.  But, if you have AAA towing, it need not be expensive.  And if you don't panic and throw money at a car, it need not be costly.

During my last trip North, the X5 coolant expansion tank (which is pressurized) started to crack.  I noticed the "coolant low" light come on more than once, and after refilling the coolant a few times, I noticed that there was a small crack in the bottle.  A quick drive to the dealer and $180 later I had a new coolant bottle, which took an hour to replace (it snaps in).

Even if I had to go to a mechanic, this would have delayed my trip by no more than a day, and cost maybe $300 to replace - well within my $1000 annual budget above.

But of course, many others are not so handy - and many people are afraid of breakdowns "on the road somewhere".   Fear is a good selling tool, and not surprisingly, dealers use it to sell cars.

Fear is never an emotion to be trusted, period.

In my experience, however, the "reliability" argument is used by people who want a new car but don't necessarily need one.  They get Grandma to co-sign a loan saying "Grandma, I need a new car to get to work!  I don't want to break down on the road somewhere and get raped!"  And Grandma, finally glad that their granddaughter is "off crack" and "has a job" will fall for this argument, oblivious to the fact that while her 20-something granddaughter is tooling around in a brand-new car, Grandma is driving a 10-year-old Buick.

So no, other than end of design life issues, the "reliability" issue makes no sense.  Most modern cars can be run reliably for 10-15 years before they reach the end of the Weibull curve.   Selling a car at the five-year mark is just vanity.  Leasing every three years, even more so.

If my car breaks down, I'd just go and rent one for a while.

* * *
The point is not that you should keep your car forever.   That is not practical, affordable, or physically possible, in most cases.   The point is that the longer you can keep your existing car, the cheaper it is to drive.   Constantly trading in cars every 3-5 years results in a lot of excessive costs, both in terms of sales taxes, as well as depreciation and insurance costs.

When repair costs exceed the value of the vehicle, then junk it and buy something newer.  But buying new cars, serially, is one sure way to squander a lot of cash.

But until then, the best used-car value is likely parked in your driveway.  The more crap you buy, the poorer you will be, over time, not richer.